Mortgage rates decreased three basis points last week according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on November 26th. Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, pending home sales are at the highest level since last November and homebuyer activity continues to show resilience as we near year end.
Mortgage applications increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 21st. “Mortgage rates crept higher last week, with the 30-year fixed rate at its highest level since early October. Despite these slightly higher rates, purchase applications increased over the week and remained at a stronger pace than a year ago, with increases across conventional and government purchase applications. The government purchase index, which includes FHA, VA, and USDA applications, increased 9 percent and had the strongest week since 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite slowing home-price growth and lower mortgage rates, affordability remains a challenge in many markets and government loan programs remain appealing to qualified buyers looking to purchase a home. The average purchase loan size decreased to its lowest level in two months.
The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago. With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative information from ADP has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture. Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but critical reports such as the monthly nonfarm payrolls count won’t come out until December. “With the next jobs report now scheduled for December 16 and CPI for December 18, there is little on the calendar to derail a cut on December 10,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a client note Sunday.
Sales at U.S. retailers and restaurants increased modestly in September as resilient consumers moderated their spending after splurging over the summer. Sales rose 0.2% in September from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, in a report delayed more than a month because of the government shutdown. Sales jumped 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June. Numerous reports on inflation, employment, spending, and growth remain delayed and the government won’t likely be caught up until late December. The retail sales figures suggest that Americans pulled back a bit in September as many households are still struggling with high prices for groceries, rent, and many imported goods hit by tariffs. Still, the modest increase in spending may lift the economy’s growth to a solid 3% or higher annual rate in the July-September quarter, economists forecast, after a sluggish 1.6% expansion in the first half of the year.
